2010: Outgoing Governor Linda Lingle releases an independent financial analysis of the project by IMG and Thomas Rubin which concluded that construction cost will likely be more than the $5.4 B projection, ridership projections were both very high and would require passenger loads significantly higher than that of any U.S.A $150 M realignment is necessary to reroute the guideway one block over. 2010: The cost is up to $5.4 Billion not counting the error of locating an insufficient distance from an airport runway.
#Honolulu rail route pro
2009: President pro tempore Senator Inouye of Hawaii joins the rail party.Hannemann declares that “the train has left the station.” Summer 2008: Mayor Hannemann up for reelection gives a helicopter ride to Senator Oberstar who then says that the Feds will give Honolulu $900 M.The gravy train has thus been established. The rail tax is expected to generate about $2 B. Against expectations, Republican Governor Linda Lingle opted to save her political career and let the tax stand without a veto. Spring 2008: Hawaii legislature approves a 0.5% tack-on to Hawaii’s GET tax that applies to every transaction.Late-2006: Alternatives Analysis sets the cost at $4.6 B (this figure and all figures below include FTA-mandated contingency funds).Mid-2006: Hannemann switches to the Minimum Operating Segment: 20 miles will cost about $3 B.2004: Newly elected mayor Hannemann asserts that 34 miles of rail will cost $2.7 Billion.But this is nothing compared to the total escalation of cost figures.įirst, let’s review some highlights of the project’s development between 20.
In less than two years, the guideway construction company (Kiewit) submitted 40 work change orders and recently demanded a $20 million price adjustment. Several segments and columns have suffered large cracks, concrete delamination and segment misalignment, and safety lapses were alleged at the Ansaldo rail yard. HART, the voter approved “independent authority” that runs the project with many of its budget strings controlled by the city council, claimed a 25% project completion in December 2015, although 15% is a more realistic estimate based on what has been physically constructed so far. Tren Urbano’s actual construction cost was 80% over the planned estimate, and its ridership has been only one quarter of what was projected! HART rail and Tren Urbano were planned by the same consultant (PB) and had the same oversight (FTA.)Īt the end of 2015, five miles of the HART guideway, and the rail yard appear to be substantially complete. Tren Urbano in San Juan, Puerto Rico is a peer project that HART rail will likely match in failure-to-meet-targets. Well known megaproject failures include the Chunnel Tunnel/ Eurotunnel that suffered all three failures, and Boston’s Big Dig that suffered failures 1 and 2 in a big way.
What’s a megaproject failure? An infrastructure project that exhibits at least two out of three bad outcomes: 1) Large cost overruns, 2) Long project delivery delays, and 3) Much lower usage than forecast. Local political preference (e.g., why build a $1 Billion taxpayer project when you can get away with a $5 Billion project? … also known as “the gravy train”) stands among the major causes of this megaproject failure in progress.
#Honolulu rail route full
Despite a couple major lawsuits, it completed the Federal Full Funding Grant Agreement process in 2012. It is the worst design possible because it combines an intrusive and expensive infrastructure including 21 elevated stations, and a low passenger carrying capacity with over 60% of it as standing passengers.ĭespite the preponderance of evidence that Honolulu’s rail will do little to mitigate the severe congestion on the island of Oahu, the project did garner marginal (50.6%) public support on a 2008 referendum. Honolulu rail, managed by Honolulu Area Rapid Transit (HART), is a 1970s style 20 mile, all-elevated heavy-rail guideway with third rail power delivery and light rail-sized cars limited to about 650 passengers per two-car combination it has an ability to run only up to four cars for peak period service. What if I tell you that tiny Honolulu is building a rail system that’s expected to cost at least one-half the cost of the Big Dig? On a per-capita basis it would be the nation’s largest infrastructure fiasco by far. How bad can possibly things get there? Well, a lot of people recall Boston’s Big Dig, the nation’s largest infrastructure fiasco with a final price tag of about $15 billion. Typically very few people pay attention to the goings on in the small state of Hawaii.
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